Carlin Economics and Science

With emphasis on climate change

Implications of Trump’s Choice of Science Adviser

For over a year outsiders seemed to expect that Professor William Happer, a physicist from Princeton, would be the Trump Administration’s Science Adviser. He had previously served as a (lower case) science adviser in the George H. W. Bush and Clinton Administrations, and could not be accused of being sympathetic to the Obama Administration on climate issues.

But this is not what happened in the end. Dr. Kelvin Droegemeier was nominated as Trump’s Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, perhaps because his views on the ever-sticky climate issue were largely unknown and possibly pro-Climate Industrial Complex (CIC). This is unlike Professor Happer’s strong skeptic stance over many years and public disagreement with the Clinton Administration with Vice President Al Gore. So what happened to Prof. Happer? In the end he was appointed this week to a newly created position as the senior director of the National Security Council for emerging technologies.

This outcome suggests to me that the Trump Administration is trying to avoid an open confrontation with the CIC, just as they have done in the case of the Endangerment Finding, which they have chosen not to reexamine, and the proposed but so far not initiated (but much discussed) red-blue team confrontation. They probably think that this approach will improve their chances of reelection in 2020 and a favorable outcome of the 2108 midterms.

I doubt that this is the case. The climate alarmists will not support the Trump Administration no matter what it does. What represents good and bad science should be determined by the scientific method, not what might help the party in power in the next election. This would have been more likely if Professor Happer had been appointed Science Adviser.

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Just beau

One thing the belief in climate might indicate is an appetite for inspiration and meaning. Climate alarmism is supposedly a worthy cause that can link people across nations, within a world with much contention and troubles.

Alarmism may have increased as a faith within societies that have lost adherents to traditional religions and pat sources of inspiration. People have aspirations for supporting a greater purpose and meaning beyond self, so they welcome a worthy cause and welcome being part of a bigger avowedly well intentioned community.

In contrast, my motivating cause is rationality. I have seen no compelling evidence of climate change and find co2 an absurd explanation for the nonexistent problem. I support freedom of religion and apply this to encompass and protect the climate alarmist cultists. On grounds of science, however, their views are absurd and their policies often hurt their communities.
A false worth cause is unworthy.

John Andrews

Ron Chappell did not say the CME means coronal mass ejections. He should have.

just beau

I believe the office of science and technology nominee has to approved by the Senate. The Senate is narrowly controlled by Republicans. They would not be able to get happer thru the current Senate, because sometimes pithy about the hoax. Thus Hapoer has been appointed to a different job that does not require Senate approval.

This is Winning!!

Happer knows which end is up and is on board the team. Some bland very nice guy will occupy the job requiring Senate blessing.

Ronald Chappell

No. The most plausible explanation is not from greenhouse gases. The increase in temperature since the little ice age is largely due to solar insulation and CME driven cloud reduction because…. In the case of greenhouse alone effect is due to the increased density of 2xCO2 causing an increase in altitude and thus decreased temperature of radiation from the 15u band resulting in a reduction of ~4 w/m2 of IR radiation to space. The first law cannot allow this to continue indefinitely and thus the accumulation of this radiation deficit will result in an increase in earth effective radiation temperature of 1C. to balance a constant radiation input from the sun to maintain zero average power change in the system. No additional energy/power is available from the CO2 GH effect by itself. The constant power flow will be maintained at a nominal constant value equal to solar input, All-be-it at a 1C increase in system temperature. There is no increase in available power to increase water vaporization/flow or cloud quantity. In this case considered for 2xCO2 only change, constant solar insulation/constant, solar CME and constant cosmic ray flux thus constant cloud cover; the temperature increase in the surface and water molecules is the only physics available to the earth system to maintain constant power flow to space via the random chaotic hydrological energy flow system equal to constant received solar power input.
[warmer surface/atmosphere, 1C does not represent any increase in available power but is merely an increase in the retained, static energy content of the system as it accumulates the deficit of 4 watts/m2 CO2 radiation until the 1 C temperature increase is achieved. No increase in power is available from any source to increase water vaporization rate. Thus no additional water vapor is available to participate in feedback, positive or negative. Any increase in specific WV near the surface if RH remains constant with the 1 C temperature increase disappears as the temperature approaches 0 C at radiations altitudes as affirmed by satellite temperature/moisture measurements at altitude.]
[In any event, additional water molecules in a hydrological system provides additional cooling not GH warming since water molecules provide ~60% of earth cooling and are a negative feedback term in any increases due to any increased energy into the system such as would be the case from actual solar energy increase from CME or any actual solar insulation increase]

Just beau

I am feeling cheery to know Professor Happer is on board the President’s team. It’s nice when a President has smart and wise advisors.

Doc Carlin bravely went public and jousted with the hoaxers in 2009. Retired, started a bliog, wrote a 575 page book. Enormous outpouring of effort and intellect. Yes the Endangerment Finding still needs to be flushed away into the sewer system but Boss Trump likes Happer and skeptics are WInning.

It’s not always clear when you attend absurd electricity meetings in Virginia, so it’s worth bearing in mind, things are changing for the better, you are vindicated, and a winner, as is the USA.

just beau

It’s ok if you are not satiated with winning yet Doctor Carlin. You have a healthy appetite to win even more.

The administration may want to hone its messaging for the midterms.. It may think climate change is not a powerful subject on which to campaign. The Boss may want to run on protecting the borders, lowering crime, boosting the economy, and fighting for the working class by taxing foreign made goods. These May resonate with normal everyday people.

Republicans can just say Drain the Swamp as a broad slogan to cover many useless Federal programs, including climate alarmism. Let democrats mention climate alarmism. The topic helps them sound like fools and out of touch.

Just Beau

The appointment of Happer to another post is a highly positive, nuanced signal. Trump did not want the story to be that he had passed over Professor Happer. Instead Happer was recruited and is very much part of the Administration’s team.

The guiding factor right now is the very narrow republican edge in the Senate. The death of McCain was useful timing, since Kyl is a steadier vote. The Senate is vital for approving Kavanagh and others who require confirmation.

Droegemeier is fine. He is an academic from Oklahoma. This implies he was recommended by the great Inhofe. He may be a tactful guy who will aim to be a team player. That’s what is warranted right now.

This country has enough other hot issues without the republicans contributing to climate change sound and fury signifying nothing.

The Republicans should be able to increase their Senate margin during the November election. Maybe Happer will dance on Al Gore’s folly during 2019 ?

Louis W Powers

Agree 100% The following is a Letter I have written to President Trump on the subject.

The Honorable President Donald J Trump June 9, 2018
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20500

Dear President Trump,

From time to time I have communicated with you my position that I do not believe increasing CO2 has little to do with World-wide air temperature or climatic conditions. My last communication with you was back in February of this year. I recently read a book entitled “The “Inconvenient Facts– The Science that Al Gore doesn’t want you to know.”

This book and the charts there-in convince me more than ever I am right on this conclusion. I am in conversation with the Author Gregory Wrightstone the author and he has given me permission to distribute some 25 key charts from his book. They are excellent some of the best I have seen.

These Charts can be found on my web site TheWorldEnergyDilemma.com under the news tab dated June 2, 2018.

Here is some additional information https://inconvenientfacts.xyz/about-the-author
Yours truly,

Louis W. Powers Author “The World Energy Dilemma” 2012 PennWell Publishing
CC Scott Pruitt EPA Administrator, Washington D. C. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Headquarters1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW ·
The.Secretary@hq.doe.gov Rick Perry Department of Energy, 1000 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC 20585
Dr. Neil Frank, 32726 Weybridge, Fulshear, Texas 77441
Dr. E. Calvin R. Beisnor Cornwall Allience 9302-C Old Keene Mill Road Burke, VA 22015.
Dr. Alan Carlin, 9200 Leamington Court, Fairfax, Va 22031
Darcy Spada E Mail president@SPE.org
Preston Meeks E mail pmeeks@pdq.net
Ed Holstein E Mail E.d.holstein@comcast.net
Jack Threet E Mail jthreet@me.com — Former Manager of Shell Oil Company Exploration
Dr. Ron Lantz E Mail rlantz@austin.rr.com
Sid Smithj E Mail smithss@ms.com
Gene Ames Email gamesjr33@gmail.com, –Former Chairman of IPAA
Skip Ward E mail egkmward@att.net

Derek

I agree with you completely. It is surprising given that President Trump is so outspoken on every issue that he has taken this approach to the climate issue. I suspect that this is not a major issue for him and so he has delegated these decisions to others. In doing so he will have disappointed some of his supporters, but they will probably vote for him and his party anyway. He certainly won’t attract any votes from those who support the climate change hypothesis. Leaving the Paris accord was the key decision. No committed greens will listen to him after that.

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