Perhaps the most significant recent development in climate alarmism is the increasing internal polarization of two major European countries. In recent years Western Europe has been the primary home of climate alarmism.
The negotiations to form a new German government have broken down on several issues, of which climate may be the most important. This is unusual because no such political breakdown has occurred since the days of the Weimar Republic. It also ends the united front on climate over the last decade or so in Germany. In Britain the Government has announced an end to some important subsidies for renewables. Given the dependence of renewables on subsidies, this could have a major effect on their further development in Britain
If these or similar developments continue in Europe this is in marked contrast to the unity and consensus exhibited by the European Climate Industrial Complex (CIC) as recently as late 2015 with the Paris “Treaty.” If in the end the European CIC falls apart, there might actually be a serious possibility of a more general collapse of CIC support. That would be a wonderful outcome, but cannot be counted on as yet.
Some of the Underlying Problems Posed by European Climate Alarmism Are Finally Becoming Evident
The underlying reason for the climate polarization in Britain and Germany appears to be that ordinary people and businesses are finally seeing what climate alarmism is leading to for them. In Britain a 40% increase in elderly pensioners dying last winter has has been blamed on increasing bills for electricity to stay warm. And in Germany it seems to be primarily industries that are worried about being non-competitive internationally because of much higher electricity rates. The recent growth of the AfD party is said to be in part the direct result.
The European Greens now face serious questions about the effects of their climate alarmism. Dying pensioners and industries have finally resulted in a political reaction which is unlikely to be quelled by the usual junk science scare tactics long used by European (and American) greens. If the alarmists are unable to win back their former support in Western Europe and in Washington, there is some hope that their scam may finally start to fade away.
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It’s like being within a theatre endlessly replaying a boring propaganda film co-written by al gore, jimmy Hansen, Barry O and Barbara Boxer. The democrats play a narrative of gloom endlessly, with expensive electricity their fantasy happy solution. the left wing media trumpet non factual nonsense to try to maintain the illusion.
As shown by jailed conartIst Bernie Madoff, there is vulnerability with any scam. If a publication like the economist doubles down on its willful mistake, it deliberately disregards better science and infamously damages its credibility.
At airport see economist magazine cover is about climate change.
This helps Trump, I suspect. He is a good counter puncher. Liberals triple double down on fraud.
Decades ago I would not have expected the National enquirer would be the more reliable source. Now Norman McRae and Maggie Thatcher are gone, the economist is a disgrace.
It would indeed be encouraging if one of the leading climate scammers, Merkel, were driven out of office. Every leader has to pack it in, so she too will someday depart. Hope it’s soon, but best to assume the worst, no change.
Ignoring the distraction of Angela, the Trump Administration needs to focus on its mission, repealing the endangerment finding, after cutting taxes.
The PS should be Fig 11
Alan–
Don’t forget Poland.
Dr Norman Page
Houston
Alan .To see what is really going in see Fig 4 in my paper DOI: 10.1177/0958305X16686488 Energy& Environment see blog version at
https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-coming-cooling-usefully-accurate_17.html
Fig 4. RSS trends showing the millennial cycle temperature peak at about 2003 (14)
Figure 4 illustrates the working hypothesis that for this RSS time series the peak of the Millennial cycle, a very important “golden spike”, can be designated at 2003.
The RSS cooling trend in Fig.4 was truncated at 2015.3 because it makes no sense to start or end the analysis of a time series in the middle of major ENSO events which create ephemeral deviations from the longer term trends. By the end of August 2016, the strong El Nino temperature anomaly had declined rapidly. The cooling trend is likely to be fully restored by the end of 2019.
The establishment climate scientists make a schoolboy error of scientific judgement by projecting trends straight ahead across the millennial peak turning point. The whole UNFCCC circus which has led to the misuse of trillions of dollars is based on the ensuing delusionary projections of warming.
Here is the paper Abstract for convenience.
” ABSTRACT
This paper argues that the methods used by the establishment climate science community are not fit for purpose and that a new forecasting paradigm should be adopted. Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between various quasi-cyclic processes of varying wavelengths. It is not possible to forecast the future unless we have a good understanding of where the earth is in time in relation to the current phases of those different interacting natural quasi periodicities. Evidence is presented specifying the timing and amplitude of the natural 60+/- year and, more importantly, 1,000 year periodicities (observed emergent behaviors) that are so obvious in the temperature record. Data related to the solar climate driver is discussed and the solar cycle 22 low in the neutron count (high solar activity) in 1991 is identified as a solar activity millennial peak and correlated with the millennial peak -inversion point – in the UAH temperature trend in about 2003. The cyclic trends are projected forward and predict a probable general temperature decline in the coming decades and centuries. Estimates of the timing and amplitude of the coming cooling are made. If the real climate outcomes follow a trend which approaches the near term forecasts of this working hypothesis, the divergence between the IPCC forecasts and those projected by this paper will be so large by 2021 as to make the current, supposedly actionable, level of confidence in the IPCC forecasts untenable.
Alan over the next 6 months as the El Nina cooling develops the entire anthropogenic warming meme will be seriously challenged. The realists could get ahead of the herd by linking to and
wherever possible, publishing an outline of my working hypothesis, summarizing the main ideas and the forecasts in the paper.Perhaps you could assist.It is essential the the Endangerment finding be overturned before the Republicans lose control over Congress.Best Regards Norman Page.
PS for a neat example of the turning point see Fig 1