New Research Report on the Validity of Global Average Surface Temperature Data and EPA’s GHG Endangerment Finding

A new report finds that the three Global Average Surface Temperatures (GAST) data sets used by climate alarmists are not a valid representation of reality, including their repeated claims of highest recorded average temperatures. Authored by Drs. James P. Wallace III, Joseph S. d’Aleo, and Craig D. Idso, the new extensively peer reviewed research report examines whether the GAST used by the UN IPCC and the USEPA are sufficiently credible to be used for policy purposes.

In fact, the report says, “the magnitude of their historical data adjustments, that removed their cyclical temperature patterns, are totally inconsistent with published and credible U.S. and other temperature data. Thus, it is impossible to conclude from the three published GAST data sets that recent years have been the warmest ever–despite current claims of record setting warming.”

The report concludes that “since the GAST data set validity is a necessary condition for EPA’s GHG/CO₂ Endangerment Finding, it too is invalidated by these research findings.” The Endangerment Finding is the basis for all EPA regulations intended to reduce emissions of CO₂, so the report’s conclusions imply that all these regulations (such as the Clean Power Plan) should also be invalidated.

The new report shows that each new version of GAST has nearly always exhibited a steeper warming linear trend over its entire history. And it has nearly always been accomplished by systematically removing the previously existing cyclical temperature pattern. This was true for all three organizations providing GAST data measurements, NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU.

Need for the Study

The need for this study arose because most of the adjustments made by NOAA, GISS, and Hadley CRU in recent decades have resulted in GAST that make the alleged effects of increasing atmospheric CO₂ on GAST more credible. These “one-sided” adjustments have been identified by many climate skeptics as likely to be unjustified since routine adjustments are normally “two-sided” as corrections are made to solve various problems. And the keepers of the data bases are all strong supporters of climate alarmism, which might have supplied a motive for such “one-sided” adjustments that favor their policy views.

Previous skeptic analyses of GAST have primarily discussed the justification for individual adjustments to GAST made by government agencies in the course of their record maintenance responsibilities. This study instead asks whether the sum effect of all the adjustments represent credible temperature series that are useful for policy purposes or not.

Earlier Report Also Invalidates EPA Endangerment Finding

Two of the same authors have recently issued another report which finds that the Greenhouse Gas Endangerment Finding (EF) is also invalidated by the finding that each of the three lines of evidence used by EPA to justify the EF are also invalid based on new-to-climate research statistical relationships found using satellite and balloon temperature data. The earlier report is able to explain global temperatures using only natural factors and without any effects of human-caused emissions.

So there are now two unrelated extensively peer reviewed reports that reach the same conclusion through new and entirely different approaches: The USEPA’s three lines of evidence as well as the UNIPCC reports supporting climate alarmism are invalid. The authors believe it is time for the EPA to reevaluate the EF and withdraw it. This would invalidate all EPA regulations based on the EF.

The formal press release prepared by the authors is as follows:

PRESS RELEASE

On the Validity of NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU Global Average Surface Temperature Data & The Validity of
EPA’s CO₂ Endangerment Finding
Abridged Research Report
June 2017
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/ef-gast-data-research-report-062817.pdf

Just released: A peer reviewed Climate Science Research Report has proven that it is all but certain that EPA’s basic claim that CO₂ is a pollutant is totally false. All research was done pro bono.

The objective of this research was to test the hypothesis that Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) data are sufficiently credible estimates of global average temperatures such that they can be relied upon for climate modeling and policy analysis purposes. The relevance of this research is that the validity of EPA’s CO₂ Endangerment Finding requires GAST data to be a valid representation of reality.

In this research report past changes in the previously reported historical data are quantified. It was found that each new version of GAST has nearly always exhibited a steeper warming linear trend over its entire history. And, it was nearly always accomplished by each entity systematically removing the previously existing cyclical temperature pattern. This was true for all three entities providing GAST data measurement, NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU.

As a result, this research sought to validate the current estimates of GAST using the best available relevant data. The conclusive findings were that the three GAST data sets are not a valid representation of reality. In fact, the magnitude of their historical data adjustments which removed their cyclical temperature patterns are totally inconsistent with published and credible U.S. and other temperature data.

Thus, despite current claims of record setting warming, it is impossible to conclude from the NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU GAST data sets that recent years have been the warmest ever.

Finally, since GAST data set validity is a necessary condition for EPA’s CO₂ Endangerment Finding, it too is invalidated by these research findings. This means that EPA’s 2009 claim that CO₂ is a pollutant has been decisively invalidated by this research.